The impact of economic uncertainty, precarious employment, and risk attitudes on the transition to parenthood

(2021) - Christian Schmitt

Journal: Advances in Life Course Research
Link:: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040260821000010
DOI:: 10.1016/j.alcr.2021.100402
Links::
Tags:: #paper #LifeCourse #SocialTheory
Cite Key:: [@schmittImpactEconomicUncertainty2021]

Abstract

This study investigates how precarious employment throughout the life course affects the fertility behavior of men and women in Germany, and how risk attitudes moderate exposure to objectively given uncertainty. Analyzing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study from 1990 to 2015, I find that men and women have become quite similar in their fertility behavior: Stable employment accelerates family formation, whereas discontinuous and precarious employment delays it. With regard to risk attitudes, risk-averse women show the highest likelihood of family formation. They appear to choose a family- and parenthood-centered path in their life course that provides them with stability and social approval when unstable career prospects and uncertain employment are unable to provide these resources.

Notes

“find that men and women have become quite similar in their fertility behavior: Stable employment accelerates family formation, whereas discontinuous and precarious employment delays it.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 1)

“k-averse women show the highest likelihood of family formation. They appear to choose a family- and parenthood-centered path in their life course that provides them with stability and social approval when unstable career prospects and uncertain employment are unable to provide these resources.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 1)

“Taking into account the multidimensionality of the life course (Buhr & Huinink, 2014), I consider the accumulation of disadvantageous conditions in individual employment biographies and corresponding life course choices with regard to family formation.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 1)

“Applying an event-history approach, the data make it possible to investigate the role of several key factors related to fertility choices, including personality traits, social and economic status, precarious employment contexts, and partnership characteristics” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 1)

“general, the transition to parenthood in western societies is a consequential and irreversible choice in the life course, usually accompanied by an intensive consideration of various factors (Hagestad & Call, 2007; Hobcraft & Kiernan, 1995; Huinink & Kohli, 2014).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“The threat emanating from such insecurities has been increasing with the reduction in welfare state’s efforts to hedge market risks (Breen, 1997). Among men, the increase in insecure and precarious work (Grotti & Scherer, 2014) has significantly undermined their previously undisputed breadwinner status” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“In this context, working on fixed-term or short-term contracts and periods of unemployment or labor market inactivity are detrimental to a person’s socio-economic status (Giesecke, 2009; Green, 2008) and threaten their” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“future ability to make investments in children’s needs.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“Unemployed women in France have been shown to postpone parenthood as the French welfare state provides comprehensive childcare services and promotes female labor market attachment, (e.g., Pailh ́e & Solaz, 2012a). For German women, in contrast, most studies find an increased likelihood to start a family after job loss. This is likely due to a generous unemployment support system and a low coverage and acceptance of public childcare (Kreyenfeld & Andersson, 2014; ̈ Ozcan, Mayer, & Luedicke, 2010; Schmitt, 2012b; Schneider, 2016).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“the level of educational attainment moderates the role of job insecurities by moderating whether acquiring a stable job takes priority over starting a family.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“the countries for which positive effects of unemployment on first motherhood have been reported, a clear pattern emerges in Denmark, Germany, the UK, and Finland, separating tertiary education (neutral or negative) from medium and lower education (neutral or positive; Huttunen & Kellokumpu,” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 2)

“& Andersson, 2014; Schmitt, 2012a, 2012b).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 3)

“Empirical investigations in recent years have substantiated the hypothesis of negative impact of high unemployment rates on fertility behavior (Adsera, 2011; Hondroyiannis, 2010; Neels, Theunynck, & Wood, 2013). The findings, however, show less straightforward associations between other macro-level uncertainties (e.g., economic growth or business cycle) and fertility behavior, broadly rejecting the connections hypothesized by the Butz and Ward model (1979).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 3)

“This study makes a key extension to previous research by accounting for individual risk tolerance3 in the analytical framework. This is based on the idea that the mechanism linking economic uncertainty (as indicated by precarious or discontinuous employment patterns) o fertility decisions is not only affected by the objectively given level of uncertainty. Instead, the individual interpretation of whether such uncertainties pose a threat to the well-being of a future family may be moderated by the individual’s perception of risk.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 4)

““risk attitude,” this characteristic is an aspect of personality associated with the Big Five personality traits (Borghans, Duckworth, Heckman, & ter Weel, 2008; McCrae & Costa, 1997).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 4)

“Individual risk tolerance is considered to emerge during adolescence (Steinberg, 2004), and to be widely stable across the rest of the life course (Dohmen et al., 2005; Donkers & van Soest, 1999; Sahm, 2007).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 4)

“Moreover, women are on average more risk-averse than men (Borghans et al., 2008; Eckel & Grossman, 2008).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 4)

“empirical models are based on a continuous time event-history analysis of the transition from childlessness to parenthood, that is, the decision to become a parent.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“The time-constant covariates include a period control with fouryear-segments, which aims to capture macro-level heterogeneity, and specifically political and economic changes as institutional shifts are closely linked to life-course outcomes (Mayer, 2009), the transition parenthood in particular” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“This indicator, however, only distinguishes between older and younger cohorts (1965 1975 and 1976 1989) to avoid an overspecification bias.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“It should also be noted that age, period, and cohort aspects still intersect with a persistent identification problem in linear dependency of these factors (Yang & Land, 2008).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“The time-varying controls include partnership status (single or cohabiting) and educational attainment.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“The employment status indicator differentiates full-time employment with permanent contract (reference), full-time with a temporary or fixed-term contract9, part-time employment, marginal employment (working fewer than ten hours per week or on an irregular basis), as well as registered unemployment, economic inactivity (including homemakers), and attending school or university.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 5)

“As outlined above, I aim to consider how objectively given uncertainty is moderated by individual risk perception. The SOEP surveyed risk attitudes on an 11-point Likert scale in 2004, 2006, and annually since 2008. The question is “How do you see yourself: Are you generally a person who is fully prepared to take risks or do you try to avoid taking risks?”” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 6)

“– aside from a gradual increase at a very low rate with age – risk attitudes are a stable characteristic of individual personality (Borghans et al., 2008; Donkers & van Soest, 1999; Sahm, 2012).” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 6)

“The baseline hazard of parenthood decisions has an approximately normal distribution, peaking at around age 28 for women and age 30 for men. We capture this distribution by applying a flexible, semiparametric Cox proportional hazards model14 (Efron method for ties, Box Steffensmeier and Jones, 2004” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 6)

“The event history models presented in Tables A1–A3 are all estimated separately for men and women, as well as in a joint model. The theoretical reasoning behind distinguishing between men and women is outlined the analytical framework. Men and women face highly differing social expectations, constraints, and costs when considering the transition to parenthood, particularly in the context of employment choices.” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 6)

“line with these developments, the findings show a delay in family formation in precarious and otherwise atypical employment contexts” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 9)

“Precarious employment is considered to hamper parenthood transitions as it undermines the ability to provide for a family. The findings show that repeated or excessively long unemployment periods go hand in hand with severe discouragement and weakened attachment to the labor market” (Schmitt, 2021, p. 10)