Risk and uncertainty in the youth transition
Risk and uncertainty in the youth transition
Key takeaways
Bibliography: Furlong, A., Cartmel, F., 1997. Risk and uncertainty in the youth transition. YOUNG 5, 3–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/110330889700500102
Authors:: Andy Furlong, Fred Cartmel
Tags: #Labour-Market, #Theory, #Uncertainty-and-Risk
Collections:: Uncertainty and Risk
First-page: 1
Over the last two decades, the transition from school to work in Britain has changed quite radically, as is the case in much of Western Europe. Transitions have become more protracted, routes have increased in complexity and sequences of events have changed. Whilst young people were once able to develop fairly clear ideas about their likely destinations in the labour market, today they are much more uncertain about the implications of following particular transitional routes. In this paper, we describe some of the main changes which have occurred over the last decade and discuss some of their implications. Our main argument is that despite the radical nature of the changes which have taken place, new opportunities are limited. For many young people, the underlying patterns of social reproduction largely remain intact, while for others we can identify new sources of vulnerability which may ultimately lead to marginalisation. ’ Despite the existence of many continuities in transitional outcomes, the changes have left many young people without fixed points of reference and are associated with increased feelings of risk and uncertainty. Whereas subjective understandings of the social world were once shaped by class, gender and neighbourhood relations, the far reaching nature of the changes mean that today everything is presented as a possibility. We begin by describing some of the changes in patterns of educational participation in Britain, highlighting the extent to which differential educational outcomes have been maintained over the last couple of decades. We go on to look at the implications of these changes for young people’s labour market experiences.
content: "@furlongRiskUncertaintyYouth1997" -file:@furlongRiskUncertaintyYouth1997
Reading notes
Imported on 2024-05-07 21:45
- Transitions have become protracted, have increased in complexity and of have more routes events sequences changed. (p. 1)
- Our main is that despite the radical of the argument nature changes which have taken place, opportunities limited. For new are many young people, the underlying of social reproduction largely remain intact, while for patterns others identify of vulnerability which ultimately lead to we can new sources may marginalisation. (p. 1)
- Back in the 1970s, minimum-aged schoolleaving the predominant especially people from was once pattern, among young working class families. (p. 1)
- Today relatively few people leave school sixteen at young (p. 1)
- (Furlong,1992; Roberts,1995; Surridge and Raffe,1995). (p. 2)
- The changing of post-compulsory educational participation between the rates 1970s and 1990s have been quite dramatic. In 1973/74, around third of sixteen yeara old males (33 cent) and less than four in females in (37 cent) participated per ten per form of full-time education in England. By 1993/94 in than some ten more seven sixteen year-olds (70 of males and 76 of females) participated in fullcent per per cent time education. (p. 2)
- In Britain, the changing of schooling, together with the introduction of patterns new forms of educational credentials and vocational in schools, have had new courses a significant of school-leavers. In 1970, substantial impact the qualification profiles a on proportion of young people left school without graded examination result (44 any per cent). (p. 2)
- The continued expansion of qualified school-leavers together with raised quotas for admissions Higher Education have also led increase in admissions to to an to degree (Paterson, 1992; Nloon, 1995; Smithers and Robinson, 1995; Surridge courses and Raffe, 1995). (p. 2)
- include reference to Blair's 50%, the achievment of that stat in the 2010s:
- Moon (1995) has shown that between 1970 and 1995 the proportion of people young entering Higher Education from 13 39 cent to rose per per cent. (p. 3)
- However, analyses of the effects of periods of educational expansion have demonstrated past that increasing levels of educational participation do necessarily result in not a process of equalisation between social (Boudon, 1973; Halsey et al., 1980; jB;1cPherson groups and Willms,1987). In fact the evidence that people from working class suggests young families remain less likely than their middle class either remain school to at peers beyond the minimum leaving leave school with recognised qualification age, to a or place in Higher Education (Shavit and Blossfeld, 1993). to secure a (p. 3)
- In Scotland in 1991, around four in people from the ten young lower working classes left school with minimal qualifications, compared just to over in from the professional and managerial classes.2 ten one (p. 4)
- Twenty the under achievement of girls years ago, in the educational major focus of sociological analysis. While girls tended system was a outperform boys in the early of the primary school, their initial advantages to stages lost boys began overtake them in of the curriculum to most were soon as areas (Douglas, 1967). (p. 5)
- By the early 1980s the situation had started change and by the end of compulsory to schooling girls likely than boys graded examination result, to to were more possess a have passed five 0 levels A levels (DES, 1983). In or more or one or more (p. 5)
- As Roberts girls the argues, are now educational high-flyers. In the mid-1990s, girls maintaining their primary school lead boys throughout secondary and into higher were over education. Girls today outperform boys in GCSEs, do better at A levels, and likely to enter are more higher education. Girls have also been making inroads into traditionally male subjects. They now do better than boys in GCSE maths and growing proportion of sixth form and higher education are a students in science and medicine. More than currently in medical schools young women men are training be doctors. (1995: 47) to (p. 5)
- Inequalities associated with ’race’ also continue be for to to a cause concern educationalists with people from certain ethnic minorities still tending to young under-perform school in comparison the white majority. In 1993, around at to a quarter of males and just less than third of women of working had qualifications, while a age no the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community just half of and three among over men fifths of lacked qualifications (CSO, 1994). women (p. 5)
- While black youths still tend under-perform school, it is important be to at to aware that ’colour’ often mask significant forms of disadvantage. In other words, can more the relatively attainment of blacks perhaps has do with socioto poor young more economic disadvantage than ethnicity. Indeed, Smith and Tomlinson (1989) have argued that within the secondary school, after controlling for attainment 11, at age (p. 5)
- there is little difference in the of black and white pupils. progress (p. 6)
- despite far-reaching and radical changes in the British of education sum, system the has retained its characteristic feature: experiences which system most are differentiated by class, gender and ’r ’race’. On objective level, traditional structures an of social inequality remain intact, but perceptions of these has certainly processes been obscured by changes which have taken place. (p. 6)
- from the collapse of the youth labour market during the early 1980s and the re-structuring of employment (p. 6)
- opportunities within policy framework which placed priority increased training, a on ’flexibility’ and securing reduction in relative labour costs. a (p. 7)
- mid-1980s, the majority of 16 year-old leavers spending time Government sponsored were on training schemes (Furlong and Raffe, 1989). These changes led fundamental to a restructuring of the youth labour market (Ashton al., 1990) and had radical impact et a transitions from school work. on to (p. 7)
- in 1988, around 52 of the school cohort entered the labour market the minimum per cent year at age, compared 42 in 1990 and just 34 in 1991 (Payne, 1995). to per cent cent per (p. 7)
- Since 1970, the total number of employees working in manufacturing industries has fallen from around 8.6 million to around 3.8 million in 1995 (~1aguire, 1991). During the 1980-83 recession, around a third of the jobs in the engineering industry lost, trend which affected the large were a number of young males who traditionally found employment in this (Waguire, sector 1991). (p. 7)
- By 1991, nearly half of the 18-19 working in firms with less than 24 employees. Yet age group were school-leavers with the highest qualifications tend work in large firms, (in 1991 to than eight in people with A levels worked in firms with 24 more ten young over employees), whilst the least qualified tend be concentrated in small firms (over to a third of those with GCSE qualifications employed in firms with less than nine no were employees) (Park, 1994). (p. 7)
- The recession of the 1980s provided firms with incentive seek of reducing labour and of the in to an ways costs one ways which this achieved through the increased used of part-time workers and was was temporary work contracts (Ashton et al.,1990). (p. 8)
- For people, unemployment and the threat of unemployment has also had young impact people’s labour market experiences the last strong two a on young over decades. Youth unemployment increased fairly steadily from the late 1970s the mid to 1980s, declined period of about three and then from 1989 began to over a years increase again. (p. 9)
- For people leaving school 16 and 17, the introduction of government young at age training schemes be regarded of the significant changes affecting must most as one transitional From the mid-1970s, as levels ofyouth unemployment increased, patterns. youth training schemes introduced. The first scheme specifically aimed at were people, (the Job Creation Programme), young (p. 9)
- Programme), introduced in 1975 was (p. 9)
- but with the introduction of the Youth Opportunities Programme (YOP) in 1978 providing six months of work (p. 9)
- experience for those who had been unemployed for six week, levels of participation In 1981, YOP succeeded by the year-long Youth Training Scheme (YTS) grew. was and in 1986 YTS became (subsequently renamed YT and, in two-year a programme 1993, Skillseekers). (p. 10)
- By the mid-1980s, with majority of minimum-aged school-leavers having a experience of YTS (Furlong and Raffe, 1989), schemes had become central to an understanding of the transition from school work. In 1985, 20 of males and to cent per 14 of females in England and Wales YTS in the spring after reaching per cent were on the minimum school-leaving (Courtenay, 1988). age (p. 10)
- In spring 1992, 16 of males and 13 of females YT (Courtenay cent cent per per were on and McAleese, 1993). (p. 10)
- fficial statistics for 1994 show that in England and Wales just 56 of ex-trainees in jobs six months cent per were after completing their schemes (DEE, 1995). (p. 10)
- YT has virtually impact peoples employment chances. no on young Moreover, there is evidence that those who fail find job strong to suggest to a immediately after leaving their schemes find it difficult long-term to escape unemployment (Furlong, 1993). (p. 10)
- Ashton and colleagues have argued that the introduced measures by during the 1980s actually produced a ’mismatch between the supply governments flow of people entering the labour market and the demands of employers for young highly educated labour force’ (1990: 2). a (p. 10)
- hese changes be arising from can seen as economic rather than political (Ashton al., 1990; Green, 1989). While processes et ’Thatcherite’ policies helped strip legislative frameworks developed in the away Fordist the main changes in the youth labour market undoubtedly caused era, were by changes in the global following the recession of the early 1980s (Green economy 1989; Ashton al., 1990). The decline in union for example, accelerated et power, was by legislation and confrontation, the is perhaps be found in the yet root cause to decline of employment in large scale industrial units and the growth of the small private firms. (p. 11)
- Although people from working class families young are increasingly likely remain school beyond the of 16, they continue be to at age to overrepresented early labour market entrants: among (p. 11)
- Moreover, there is evidence that class-based differentito no suggest als have declined the last decade (Furlong, 1992; Marshall and Swift, 1993), over although those from ethnic minorities becoming likely than their white are more avoid early labour market (Courtenay and McAleese, 1993). counterparts to entry (p. 11)
- timing of entry full-time jobs has also continued be strongly affected by to to gender: while girls tend school, boys likely have entered fullto stay-on at are more to time jobs by the of 16-17. age (p. 11)
- Similarly, experiences of Youth Training have remained highly stratified by class, gender and ’ race’. Those from working class families have always been likely more than middle class youth join training schemes (Furlong, 1992; Roberts and Parsell, to 1992; Courtenay and I~ZcAleese, 1993), and quality training tends be reserved for to those with academic credentials strong (p. 12)
- Among graduates, the unemployment is higher rate males: after graduation, 12 of males unemployed, compared cent among a year per are 8 of (Sunday Times, 2/4/95). Males also much likely to cent to per women are more be unemployed for long periods of time than females: in 1995, around 127,000 males in the 18 24 had been unemployed for compared 38,000 to to age group a year or more, (Sunday Times, 2/4/95). women (p. 12)
- In the 1960s and 1970s, the predictability of transitional tended be stressed (Carter, 1962; Roberts, 1968; Ashton and Field, 1976; routes to Willis, 1977). (p. 13)
- Risk aversion thesis? This could form a part of my thetoetical orientation:
- Ashton and Field (1976), for example, identified three main which people followed from school work: ’extended careers’ involving routes to young Higher Education and the graduate labour market; ’short-term careers’ to access involving short periods of training post-compulsory education and leading to or skilled manual routine white collar employment and; ’careerless’ which routes or involved leaving school the minimum take semi or unskilled employment. at to age up (p. 13)
- Yet despite the diversification of routes, sociologists tended that to argue transitional remained highly structured (Roberts al., 1987; Bynner and outcomes et Roberts, 1991; Banks et al., 1992). This structural emphasis underlined by the was use of the ’trajectory’ implying that individuals had little control their destinations term over (Evans and Furlong, forthcoming). (p. 13)
- theoretical influence of Beck and Giddens, transitional models introduced during the 1990s have tended place emphasis the to a greater on ways individuals actively negotiate risk and uncertainty: referred by Evans and Furlong to (forthcoming) ’navigation’ model. In the of high modernity, the of as a age range possibilities individuals that people constantly forced to to open mean are engage with the likely of their actions subjective level. Indeed, Beck consequences on a constantly highlights the which ’reflexive modernization’ involves extent to an ongoing ’self-confrontation with the effects of risk’ ( 1994: 5). The emphasis which is placed subjective perceptions of risk and uncertainty important represents on an break with earlier traditions. (p. 13)
- The re-structuring of the adult labour market and the decline of the youth labour market have important implications for the people experience the way young transition work subjective level. to on a (p. 13)
- A risk aversion for risk aversion in other words...:
- Many, fearing the shelter from the consequences, labour market long possible by remaining in education (Biggart and Furlong, as as 1996). (p. 14)
- Metaphorically, it is suggested that the old model of social reproduction, frequently described in of trajectories (Banks al., 1992) be viewed in of railway terms et terms can journeys (Roberts, 1995). (p. 14)
- The trains they board determined by factors like are social class, gender and ’race’, although the allocation of’tickets’ is confirmed the on basis of educational performance. (p. 14)
- Once the train journey has begun, opportunities to switch destinations limited: it be possible upgrade the class of ticket are may to or disembark intermediary station, but given that the trains follow different tracks, at an there few real chances change trains. As result of spending long periods of time to are a in the of other certain camaraderie develops: people become company passengers, a of their experiences and destinations. They develop affinity aware common may an with fellow and become attached their particular train. start to to passengers own Conversely, if they become dissatisfied with of their journey, they aspects may recognise that change of direction only be achieved through collective action a can (p. 14)
- best we can describe the changes occurring the last in of the wholesale over twenty terms years closure of the railways. With the absence of trains, the journey from class of origin to undertaken class of destination is by While trains remain must now car. on a predetermined of’rails’, the driver is able select his her from set car to or route vast a number of alternatives. (p. 14)
- With the impression of having control the timing and routing of their journeys over and with the experience of passing other motorists, what of the drivers fail to many realise is that the of which they have been allocated the of the type car at start expedition is the significant predictor of the ultimate of the journey. most outcome Those with inferior find themselves spending significant periods off the road, cars while those driving high performance able take advantage of stretches of cars are to road. open (p. 15)