The effects of low attainment on young people's outcomes at age 22-23 in Scotland

(2008) - Cathy Howieson, Cristina Iannelli

Journal: British Educational Research Journal
Link:: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01411920701532137
DOI:: 10.1080/01411920701532137
Links::
Tags:: #paper #school-to-work #Transition #Attainment
Cite Key:: [@howiesonEffectsLowAttainment2008]

Abstract

A common concern among policy makers in Europe is the low level of qualifications of some school leavers and the possible consequences of this for their life chances and for countries' economic prosperity. This article considers the impact of young people's low levels of educational attainment on their later life chances, especially on labour market participation. It identifies the long-term negative effects of low attainment and explores the extent to which family background also continues to influence young people's outcomes. It examines the outcomes of low attainment among young men and women and considers whether low attainment has a different impact on the prospects of young men and women. The article also investigates whether staying on at school improves longer-term chances and opportunities for low attainers. These questions have strong policy relevance, and are explored using data from a nationally representative survey of Scottish school leavers.

Notes

“A common concern among policy makers in Europe is the low level of qualifications of some school leavers and the possible consequences of this for their life chances and for countries’ economic prosperity.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 1)

“It examines the outcomes of low attainment among young men and women and considers whether low attainment has a different impact on the prospects of young men and women.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 1)

“This article considers the transitions of young people who had low levels of attainment at the end of the compulsory stage of their schooling and examines their outcomes by the age of 22–23.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 1)

“Although Scotland performs well at the level of higher education, its overall participation rates in education are among the lowest in Europe (Scottish Office, 1999; Scottish Executive, 2003)” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 2)

“Successive studies have shown the relationship between low levels of qualification and the likelihood of being unemployed; the increased duration of unemployment; the reduced chances of recovering from unemployment; the enhanced risk of ‘signing off’ to a non-employment activity; the reduced access to certain kinds and levels of jobs, and to reduced levels of earnings; as well as reduction in the likelihood of acquiring additional qualifications (Dolton & O’Neil, 1996; Dolton et al., 1999; Hannan et al., 1999; Howieson et al., 2000; Bynner et al., 2002; Wolf, 2002).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 2)

“An important dimension of the policy concern about low attainment relates to the underachievement of young men (Arnot et al., 1998; Scottish Executive, 2002). Concern about gender inequalities in education has shifted away from the disadvantages experienced by young women to a discourse of underachieving boys and young men, frequently couched in terms of boys’ ‘underachievement’ and of girls’ ‘over achievement’ (Epstein et al., 1998; Hayton, 1999; Reed, 1999; Plummer, 270 C. Howieson and C. Iannelli 1 4 6 9 3 5 1 8 , 2 0 0 8 , 2 , D o w n l o a d e d f r o m h t t p s : / / b e r a j o u r n a l s . o n l i n e l i b r a r y . w i l e y . c o m / d o i / 1 0 . 1 0 8 0 / 0 1 4 1 1 9 2 0 7 0 1 5 3 2 1 3 7 b y T e s t , W i l e y O n l i n e L i b r a r y o n [ 1 5 / 1 1 / 2 0 2 2 ] . S e e t h e T e r m s a n d C o n d i t i o n s ( h t t p s : / / o n l i n e l i b r a r y . w i l e y . c o m / t e r m s a n d c o n d i t i o n s ) o n W i l e y O n l i n e L i b r a r y f o r r u l e s o f u s e ; O A a r t i c l e s a r e g o v e r n e d b y t h e a p p l i c a b l e C r e a t i v e C o m m o n s L i c e n s” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 2)

“2000).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 3)

“The reality of the comparative performance of boys and girls is more complex. Not all boys are doing badly and not all girls are doing well (Yates, 1997; Sutherland, 1999; Tinklin et al., 2001).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 3)

“Studies also point to an increasing polarisation between those who remain in education and gain qualifications and those who leave school as soon as they can with few qualifications. These poorly qualified young people run a high risk of marginalisation in the labour market and in society more generally (Chisholm, 1999; Hodgson, 1999; Jones, 2002). In this situation social inequalities are likely to continue since young people with low levels of educational attainment are more likely to belong to more disadvantaged social classes (Sammons, 1995; Breen & Goldthorpe, 1999; Dolton et al., 1999; Howieson et al., 2000; Bynner & Joshi, 2002).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 4)

“Non-response bias was therefore corrected using weighting factors based on sex and qualifications (for details of the weighting procedure see Lynn and Farrant [1994] and Lynn [1996]).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 6)

“by 22–23 nearly two-thirds of the stayers had acquired some upper secondary academic qualifications, intermediate/advanced vocational qualifications or a degree or professional qualification compared with well under a fifth of the low attainers who had left school early (63% vs 14%, Figure 3).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 8)

“Nearly half of those who were unemployed at the age 18/19 were unemployed three years later (49%), suggesting that a substantial proportion of low attainers experienced difficulty in recovering from a position of early disadvantage. In contrast, almost three-quarters of the low attainers who were employed at the age of 18–19 were also in employment at 22–23 (74%).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 10)

“An issue in modelling is that of ‘multi-collinearity’: that is, a high degree of correlation between independent variables which means that it can be difficult to separate out the influence of one variable from that of another with which it is correlated. It is relevant to this article because S4 attainment is highly correlated with subsequent attainment and outcomes so that its impact may be subsumed within the effects of other variables. This has to be borne in mind when interpreting the models.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 11)

“Model 1 confirms the results of the descriptive statistics. When other factors are added in model 2, the effect of low attainment is reduced and gender differences become apparent (Table 3).” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 11)

“Model 2 also shows that parental employment status and education each has an additional effect on the likelihood of respondents being in education/training at 2223; parental unemployment was also a significant predictor of young people being unemployed/out of the labour force at 22–23.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 14)

“Model 4 adds in the highest academic qualifications and the highest vocational qualifications respondents achieved after their fourth year at school. Overall, the impact of attainment in S4 on young people’s outcomes is no longer apparent once the variables on more recent attainment are introduced in the model. Nevertheless, gender differences in the effect of S4 attainment persist; even after qualifications achieved by 22–23 are taken into account, women were less likely to be in education/ training than men and among the low (and mid) attainers, women were still more likely to be unemployed.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 14)

“As expected, the negative effect of low S4 attainment was reduced when postcompulsory qualifications and labour market experience at 18–19 were taken into account.” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 18)

“In answer to our second question, regarding the extent to which social origin continues to influence low-attaining young people and their outcomes at 22–23, it is evident that familial educational and labour market disadvantage is reproduced across the generations” (Howieson and Iannelli, 2008, p. 18)